I wouldn't give most stereotypical geeks a high probability of survival. They are generally not skilled in survival techniques, nor are they in good physical shape. They may be book-smart, but they're not street-smart, and that's a problem. That said, any group of survivors would be stupid to abandon a geek, as they will be integral to rebuilding our technological society in the long term.
BTW, I like how having 10 guns makes one a 'gun nut'
I call that a bare-bones collection
As for me, I think that most city-dwellers will die off, if only because of a lack of survival skills coupled with a high density of infected people in their vicinity. The most likely survivors are rural people, especially those who are into medieval or civil war reenactment or hardcore survivalists. I know one reenactor who grows her own flax (for linen) and herbs/food in northern Arizona, and has built her own weaving looms, while her husband has a forge up there and can smelt iron and hammer out plate armor and basic melee weapons such as spearheads.
In any case, the survival rate will depend on how widespread the infection is, and how long it lasts. People who stockpile food (i.e. the stereotypical Mormon family) will probably do OK in the near-term, but when the food runs out, they'll be reduced to scavenging or starving like nearly everyone else. For a good fictional examination of this, see Cormac MacCarthy's "The Road". People with weapons, and the knowledge to use them, will have an advantage, but it won't be absolute. People who have weapons, the knowledge and training to use them, stocks of food, and the knowledge necessary to survive in the wilderness as well as the physical stamina/strength to do so, will survive the longest, by and large, especially if they have like-minded friends.
For example, I have done survival camping for moderate lengths of time (i.e. 1 week), I have a reasonable stockpile of weapons but fairly low quantities of ammo due to the current ammo shortage in the US, good weapons training, and decent hiking/camping gear, but I also have a low food stockpile and am out of shape physically. I would do best if I found a good place to hole up, preferably bartering my weapon skills and supplies for food and shelter.