Author Topic: Wisdom for Wizards  (Read 12415 times)

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brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2008, 06:50:14 AM »
at least in the encounters i have played in the end of shadowfell (3rd level), the wizard was making at least 10 attacks probably more like 15 per encounter. HP scales much faster then damage that means more rounds, more actions, more spells. if this purely an argument against elven accuracy vs extra int, it seems very close. However then you are also missing the TELEPORT that eladrin get in a game that is much more focused on mobility in combat, If we are comparing races, Or the extra at-will/feat that humans get.

One other thing that hasn't been mentioned yet. that extra +1 wisdom only effects 5% of saves made by 1 creature, once per encounter. they are (by your own math) not likely to fail more then 3-4 times, this means that the 5% bonus from wisdom on saves only affects 3-4 rolls per encounter, whilst the extra int affects 10+ rolls per combat.

when I look at the HP of higher level guys, you are going to be rolling a lot of attacks with your wizard. You are going to be using your orb on 1 guy, and that 5% difference is only going to appear ~once every 5 encounters assuming the target takes an average of 4 saves per encounter (in heroic tier, later on the line it can get to an average of 6 rounds, making the 5% matter 1 in 3 fights). even If it shows up once every 3 encounters, that is still less often then your +1 to hit is going to be effective, and less often then you are going to be happy you can teleport :-p.

I would say elf is not the best race of wizards, I would say that a 16 wisdom is more important than an 18 int (thus you go 16-16) But I would play either an eladrin or a human and boost int first. Elven accuracy is very close (I would say 10 is a conservative estimate of # of attack rolls per encounter by a wizard) After seeing how close those 2 numbers are, I would take fey step over .10 any day :). especially since the int is actually better in the encounters that require more attacks.

Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2008, 07:35:29 AM »
Its 5% per save, but the cumulative save chance responds non-linearly based on where in the curve you're on. 

Effectively, the probability you're interested in is the cumulative probability that the creature will have made a save by round N, which responds as 1-(1-x)^N, where x is the probability of it making.  This is hugely nonlinear - and as you can drive monsters almost off the RNG by high levels (you actually can with Demigod, but only if you take a wisdom pumping race) means eventually you'll really notice the difference.  Hence why I said power now vs. power later.

The above math also didn't consider the effect of the monster continuing to stay under the effect of the spell on to-hit chances.  Many status conditions grant Combat Advantage, which is a +2 to hit advantage every additional round the creature maintains that condition.  Unconscious reduces its defenses by *5* and gives combat advantage, for a shift of *7* in your favor.  If you factor all that in, it starts looking even more favorable for wisdom first.

And finally, what we really care about is attacks that matter, not attacks we could care less about.  Ie, Encounter and Daily powers, with which you're quite unlikely to get 15 attacks in a combat.  If you whiff with a Ray of Frost, its ok, you'll get to try again next round.

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brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2008, 03:12:39 PM »
if you wiff with ray of frost usually your are giving away an extra action to your opponent, or failing to do something relevant (such as keep a guy locked in wall of fire.

Killing a minion is not a wasted action, scorching burst is a good power for this reason, if you can kill 3-4 minions you just made a large difference in the encounter. This is part of control, even if it isn't debilitating to the boss-types.

I'm aware that wisdom is non-linear, however it still falls under the same problem. You are focused on the wrong aspect, and your math, though correct is not the proper designation for this situation. This type of decision doesn't care about how linear the power is, only the total number of times they are going to miss by "1". The lower you make their save the better this chance gets but only because they are "probably" going to make more rolls, EVEN if you manage to get your wisdom to a point that they can't save. Obviously the more times someone rolls something, the more likely it is that they roll x number.

It's still only 5% chance for them to save (if your wisdom is 1 point lower), which in theory would take 20 rounds, I highly doubt anything is going to be out for more then 10 rounds, ever (or that it will matter past 10). you should have killed it or won the encounter by that point. which means that even with a 5% chance of saving, on average they will make it once every 2 encounters.

The point is not that they go from 0% chance to save, to the infinitely more probable 5%, it's that the difference is 5%. the probability that they actually roll that 20, is still 5%, meaning it still takes 20 rounds for them save on average.

This is gambling math, you are playing with probable scenario's based on what gives you the most win, the most often. over 30 levels of the game you don't need 5% one time, you need 5% every time to hit is the hardest thing to come by in 4e.

Really the truth is that being non-linear just means that it starts of terrible.

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The orb elf wizard on the other hand drops his orb ability on him for a cool -4 to saves, dropping that initial save 20% to 35% making.  Chances are he takes a snooze after round 1, and he's still down 42% of the time after round 2 and 28% of the time after round 3.  We're doing *twice as well as you are*, or better, on making him take a dirt nap and keeping him there.

Orb is obviously the best implement, unless you want to do a staff gish or something. In this example, you have to assume the target made either the 2nd or 3rd save. so we will average this to 2.5 rolls per encounter. it takes 8 encounters, 8! before that +1 wisdom mattered.

I'm not arguing that wizards should have a 16 wisdom, or that they shouldn't have the orb. I'm arguing that despite the fact that the orb eventually gets to the point that your +1 wisdom is going to matter once every 2-3 encounters via being non-linear, that extra +1 to hit is going to come up at least that often (assuming even 10 rolls per encounter). which is a low estimate IMO.

Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2008, 06:01:44 PM »
Yeah, as i've basically said, at 1st level the +1 int mod advantage is better.  But at 28th level (21st with demigod) the +1 wisdom advantage is relevant virtually every combat.  If you're a demigod then at 28th level you just pushed the (normal) monster off the RNG for saves. 

The cumulative probability is the most relevant thing because it tells you the distribution of the event you actually care about - how long the monster stayed down.  That saves are on a static RNG tells you that changes to the RNG are really important.  The difference between +8 and +9 wisdom literally is a factor of 2 in how long the monster stays down.  (.05 is half the probability as .1).  That's absolutely huge.  Yes, its only 5%, but its 5% that's almost off the RNG as opposed to 5% that's in the middle of it (which your attack roll is going to be).

Killing minions without an attack roll became quite easy around 5th level.  Stinking Cloud does that.  And it gets easier at higher levels because there are even more powers which accomplish that goal.  And if you can hit 5 minions (probably a high estimate), oh no, you killed 1/4 less of them than the person who chose int to be higher. 

And status conditions lasting longer tend to make hitting easier, so that slight advantage averages out against 'circumstantial' bonuses (not in the game sense, things like combat advantage when you wouldn't have it otherwise, etc...) the higher wisdom got that you didn't.
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Dan2

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2008, 07:02:05 PM »
The Wisdom mod is better if you're lucky.  It is more likely to keep one guy down longer once per encounter.

However, Int is a lot safer, and I think it pays off in the end.  If your target ever gets up, then your trick just went down the drain.  Whereas the Int-sided wizard is more likely to be able to put him down again.  Since the Implement Mastery is not an encounter power, you can't refresh it with the Demigod.

At level 30 with Demigod, you could just throw encounter powers that stun until the end of your next turn, which would favor Int anyway.

Also if (for whatever reason) you run out of Daily Attack spells, your trick doesn't work anymore.  Encounter spells don't have any (save ends) effects.

I think that the benefit at low levels combined with consistency over multiple monsters, even at high levels, makes Int pay off in the end.

Note: If you want to try to give your Wis bonus to the Sleep effect, you have to wait until he falls unconscious anyway.  Unconscious is a different effect from slow, and if you "force" him to fail the slow save, he doesn't get the penalty on the unconscious save.  The slow save is not replaced, the unconscious save is simply added.  As a different status, with a different save to end, it OR slow could be helped, but not both.

EDIT:  As a sort of a final note to this thing, increasing Wisdom feels a lot like putting all of your eggs in one basket (figuratively of course).  Sure they get a nice trick once/encounter, but if the trick fails, or even if it works, they aren't quite as good as an Int-improved wizard.

EDIT 2:  Also, it seems like you're putting a lot of effort into dropping one opponent.  It's certianly very handy to be able to do that, but that's a job for a striker, you should worry about controlling everyone (to paraphrase Treantmonk).
« Last Edit: June 06, 2008, 07:11:19 PM by Dan2 »

brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #25 on: June 07, 2008, 04:23:48 AM »
Also note it's still only 5%, no matter how much more likely that makes them to fail, it's always 5%. If they need to roll a 19 or a 20, you can double your chances of them failing by making them need a 20, but it's 5% of the time that they ACTUALLY roll the 19 :).

Both of our arguments are valid, true, and mathematically correct. I'm simply pulling a TM20 an pointing out a fact that was seemingly overlooked in the rest of the discussion.

Ultimately it comes down to not which is better +1 int or +1 wis, but which is better +1 int AND fey step, or +1 wis AND elven accuracy. due to the fact that despite any arguments we may make, the difference in the 2 choices is preferential and minor, really it's 5% either way :).

So we have math showing us that the eladrin hits ~= to the elf, at 12 attacks a combat. combats seem intended to take 10+ rounds and have at least 5 monsters in them. So I would say it's relatively fair to assume that the int bonus from the eladrin is going to basically equal out the elf with accuracy.

So this leaves us with fey step + a feat (since those numbers were calculated factoring in the elven accuracy feat) Vs. 5% less chance of having your ability saved.

I would say that a move action teleport is worth while in this situation for a couple reasons.
1. Getting surrounded sucks.
2. you don't need your effect to last for more then 10 rounds, probably not more then 5 most of the time, as the monster should be getting rolled by that time, and the encounter should be won from a tactical standpoint.
3. GETTING SURROUNDED SUCKS!!!
4. the orb trick gets powerful in epic tier, and your int bonus has helped the entire rest of the game.

Treantmonklvl20

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2008, 12:19:50 PM »
I think squirrelloid makes some strong points.  I still think "To Hit" is more important than saving throws, but it appears the math makes the effect on saving throws more signficant than the bonus to hit.

So in the end - I think it's damn close.  Seriously damn close.  It will depend on personal preference I suppose.  Personally - I will be focusing on "To Hit" with my builds - and I may change my mind somewhere down the line.

My promise is this - I will play ALOT of wizards in 4e (as I did with Basic, 1e, 2e, 3e, and 3.5  :P) and let experience be my guide down the road.
If at first you don't succeed - maybe failure is your style.

brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #27 on: June 08, 2008, 02:26:35 AM »
I think squirrelloid makes some strong points.  I still think "To Hit" is more important than saving throws, but it appears the math makes the effect on saving throws more signficant than the bonus to hit.

So in the end - I think it's damn close.  Seriously damn close.  It will depend on personal preference I suppose.  Personally - I will be focusing on "To Hit" with my builds - and I may change my mind somewhere down the line.

My promise is this - I will play ALOT of wizards in 4e (as I did with Basic, 1e, 2e, 3e, and 3.5  :P) and let experience be my guide down the road.

yup it's DAMN close. I think that fey step gives the edge over elf.

I'm not arguing that int is actually better for wizards, I'm arguing that it's ~= which I feel puts fey step over elf.

without accuracy I think int is better, so that would make int the stat of choice for me on human wizards. though, again I think its damn close, however I'll take the int because of that point of AC :), or in the case of eladrin fey step ftw.

Treantmonklvl20

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #28 on: June 08, 2008, 05:42:27 PM »
Disclaimer:  I'm not suggesting Wizards to dump Wis - but I've always thought it was possible to make a viable wizard dumping dex - but hadn't done a full build to show that.  This isn't a suggestion to make dumping wisdom standard - but to at least look at the possibility.

The sneak preview to my "Wis dump" wizard: (I'll be making the formatting all pretty to add to guide tomorrow - and double check the numbers - but here's the rough draft).

Note that a 12th level "wis key" wizard is likely looking at a +9 to hit at level 12.  +12 with Action Surge, or +9 two rolls with elven accuracy.

Against a defence score of 20 - that's 50/50, up to 65% with action surge or 75% with elven accuracy.

The Wis dump wizard can get a 95% to hit on that same AC at level 12.  Looking at a base +11 to hit, +14 to hit over the surprise and first round, up to +18 with the wand:

The Key Dexterity Wizard:
« Last Edit: June 09, 2008, 09:55:11 AM by Treantmonklvl20 »
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X-Codes

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2008, 02:18:07 AM »
Squirrel, your tone of superiority is not only unwarranted, but undeserved.  You take one situation where your build is more optimal and grant yourself more resources to achieve slightly higher benefits and then pass yourself off as the next coming because of it.

Fact is, you can only do that "awesome" saving throw trick once per day at level 1.  ONCE.  Why once?  Because thats how many times per day you cast a spell requiring saving throws assuming you don't go with Flaming Sphere (which is, in fact, a viable option seeing as it auto-kills minions and is a significant damage upgrade for the remainder of the encounter against single targets, despite it being action-intensive).  You do get a second option at 3 in Fire Shroud, but it's a pathetic damage spell unless you use your Orb with it.  Only at level 5 do you get another serious save-ends spell in Web and a third at level 9 in Ice Storm or Lightning Serpent (as if you'd take them over the awesome Wall of Fire + Thunderwave combo, even for an Orb user with their inherently high Wis).  There are even few quality effects that last until the end of your next turn.

Thats why I suggest holding off until level 11 or even 14 to get the Orb, since at that point you have a couple daily spells that can be helped by it and at level 15 you get the truly awesome save-ends spells in Blast of Cold (aiming greatly aided by Eladrin Teleportation I might add) and/or Prismatic Beams, with Evard's Black Tentacles as impressive as ever on the horizon at 19.

Finally, there are some pretty significant drawbacks to this.  If you pick up Astral Fire, Raging Storm, or even Hellfire Blood at first level instead of Elven Accuracy, then your at-will AoE attacks will be dealing a full 25% less damage on top of being 5% less accurate, and no they're not just for Minions.

limes superior

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #30 on: June 10, 2008, 07:25:23 PM »
Hi guys,

i calculated the expected value of rounds an opponent will be effected by your save-ends spells here.

Greatest gaming!
limsup
« Last Edit: June 10, 2008, 08:26:00 PM by limes superior »

Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #31 on: June 10, 2008, 08:16:39 PM »
Squirrel, your tone of superiority is not only unwarranted, but undeserved.  You take one situation where your build is more optimal and grant yourself more resources to achieve slightly higher benefits and then pass yourself off as the next coming because of it.

Excuse me?  I demonstrate the truth of my statements with math, how is that acting like the second coming?  I suppose you think TM20 should also lose his superior attitude for stating his beliefs equally vociferously?  This is CO, people state their opinions as fact, and will act like it is (and can often prove it mathematically).  Get over yourself.  Being self-righteous about it doesn't change that your point was completely disproven by the math in my response to your previous post, it just makes it sound like you have no actual argument to present.

If you want to make a different point, do it with math and prove it.  I even found the breakpoint between +1 int and Elven Accuracy, and its a disturbingly large number of attacks/round.  And as we really don't care about at-will power hits in the same way we do about encounter and daily hits, we're really talking about >12 encounter or daily attacks in a round - and I just don't see that happening very often.  That proves the general versatility of Elf as a choice.

And make no mistake, they are not slightly higher benefits at high levels.  They are absolutely ginormous benefits at high levels.  At low levels they aren't so hot, but once you hit epic you really notice the difference from even a single shift in wisdom bonus.

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Fact is, you can only do that "awesome" saving throw trick once per day at level 1.  ONCE.  Why once?  Because thats how many times per day you cast a spell requiring saving throws assuming you don't go with Flaming Sphere (which is, in fact, a viable option seeing as it auto-kills minions and is a significant damage upgrade for the remainder of the encounter against single targets, despite it being action-intensive).  You do get a second option at 3 in Fire Shroud, but it's a pathetic damage spell unless you use your Orb with it.  Only at level 5 do you get another serious save-ends spell in Web and a third at level 9 in Ice Storm or Lightning Serpent (as if you'd take them over the awesome Wall of Fire + Thunderwave combo, even for an Orb user with their inherently high Wis).  There are even few quality effects that last until the end of your next turn.

Let me reiterate, since I've only said it twice so far in this thread: Choosing Wis over Int is choosing power later over power now, and vice versa.  As power later is almost always better (and really, the loss of power now is small vs. huge amounts of power later), you should choose power later.  Int is a better choice at low levels (say, heroic), after that wisdom becomes the better choice by far, and continues until the advantage in epic is seriously significant every combat.  Not only that, but this also corresponds to an increasing number of save ends conditions.  So yes, its a 1/day trick at 1st level that's a slightly worse overall than having taken the int pump.  At epic its basically 1/encounter (actually at 30th with Archmage), and seriously hardcore vs. the extra int you'll barely notice you have that's doing just as much for you as it was at 1st level. 

So if you're only going to play heroic tier, sure, grab an int race.  If you plan on playing higher than that and want to play a control wizard, I think you'd be foolish to play a race without a +2 wis bonus.

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Thats why I suggest holding off until level 11 or even 14 to get the Orb, since at that point you have a couple daily spells that can be helped by it and at level 15 you get the truly awesome save-ends spells in Blast of Cold (aiming greatly aided by Eladrin Teleportation I might add) and/or Prismatic Beams, with Evard's Black Tentacles as impressive as ever on the horizon at 19.

Orb does a good thing besides making the sleep save hard - it also lets you make your Ray of Frost or Cloud of Daggers effect last an extra turn as an option.  And that can be useful.  Its not like even the 1/day save nuking at 1st level is something to scoff at - seeing how it doubles the expected duration of your Sleep spell.  And you can't afford a dexterity worth talking about anyway.  16 16 int/wis is necessary if you ever intend to be a control mage, at which point you're also putting 12 in Cha meaning you've got 12 for another stat - it could be dex (-> 14 with an elf/eladrin), but it could also be Con, which is arguably more useful.  And all the good implements are orbs and staves, so what you want to do is start orb and pick up stave at paragon tier (since you never need to attack with your orb to use its effects, you go double-barrelled and make your attacks with a good staff if you get one).

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Finally, there are some pretty significant drawbacks to this.  If you pick up Astral Fire, Raging Storm, or even Hellfire Blood at first level instead of Elven Accuracy, then your at-will AoE attacks will be dealing a full 25% less damage on top of being 5% less accurate, and no they're not just for Minions.

Its damage, you're a control mage, you *don't care*.  Your job isn't to kill people - that's the warlock/ranger/rogue job.  Your job is to kill minions and mess up other creatures.  Make them prone, make them slow, put them to sleep.  Your damage is *lousy* relative to everyone else and gets *worse* as you go up in level.  Why focus on what you're bad at?  Under no circumstances do you take Astral Fire as a control mage, or any feat like it.  You have better uses for your feats - even Skill Focus and Linguist are better uses.  Even if you do take it, you certainly don't take it at 1st level.  At 1st level, barring something racial and awesome to do (Elven Precision, Action Surge, etc...), you take Improved Initiative.  It really is that simple.

I mean, sure, if you want to be a blast mage you play a tiefling and take hellfire blood.  That's an easy choice to make, it involves +1 to hit on 75% of the spells you will ever cast.  But you're a blast mage.

Not that any of these responses should come as a surprise - I've *already said all this* in this thread, in response to both you and others.
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Treantmonklvl20

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #32 on: June 11, 2008, 12:53:22 AM »
I must come to the defence of Squirrelloid in that finding an optimization technique has nothing to do with having a name for yourself.  I certainly took some lumps originally when my suggestions went against the estabilished norm.  Optimization techniques should be based on their merit more than the name of who posted them.

Squirrelloids debuff-centered optimization strategy with the Orb is definitely a viable strategy - and he should be commended for first bringing it to light - and showing how a Wisdom-primary wizard does it better than anyone else.

That said - I can also understand where X-Codes is coming from regarding a "tone of superiority":

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Let me reiterate, since I've only said it twice so far in this thread: Choosing Wis over Int is choosing power later over power now, and vice versa.
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16 16 int/wis is necessary if you ever intend to be a control mage

These are the two posts I disagree with most.  Probably number 2 more than number 1 (I think number 1 is wrong - but number 2 is stifling).

I like your debuffer mage option - but I disagree - and even am coming to resent the consistant assertation on your part that it is the ONLY way to make a control wizard. 

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I suppose you think TM20 should also lose his superior attitude for stating his beliefs equally vociferously?

There is a difference though.

Now it could be said I did a similar thing with the "God Wizard" role.  However, I chose to create my own term for my build - so that it stepped on nobody elses toes, nor did it attack others ideas for wizard-builds.  There was room for God and Batman and DM's wizard suggestions and others if anyone had bothered.  I never suggested a God Wizard was the only option for wizards (in fact I repeatedly said the opposite) - but I got to set the rules for what qualified as "A God Wizard" because I made up the term.  It was one option for a way to define your wizard's role.  It restricted nobody else's creativity.

You can label your build a "Control" wizard, but you don't get the right to tell others whether their builds fill the "Control" wizard role.  Control isn't your term.  By suggesting that any build I come up with that doesn't fit your build's requirements isn't a control-wizard IS stepping on my toes.  It also creates needless confrontation - I've always been open to other ideas - but only resent it when mine are considered not worth considering.  Furthermore, being the stubborn-mule I am, I will continue with other builds and simply argue with you that they are valid, however, someone who is new to optimization might be cowed, and not give us their idea - which may have merit. 

You also I think place too much merit on the "math".  You have mathematically proven that the bonus for the extra +1 in wisdom grows in effect with level when using the orb - while the +1 Int gives a static bonus.  However, you then expand that to mean that specializing in the Orb is the only option for a Control Wizard - which has nothing to do with the math.  It has to do with actually sampling the spells and considering all the different options - and playing them, and gathering testimonials, and gathering personal experience.  You set your own controlled environment to make your comparison "The Wis and Int wizard cast this (save ends) spell - and the math shows that the Wis wizard is better at it, by greater effect as you go up levels, so therefore any other build is inferior at Control."  If your controlled environment was every spell ever cast - then the math would be irrefutable.  However, the amount of (save ends) spells a control wizard casts is variable.  That is a variable your math ignores, because we don't know yet what that variable is.  If that variable equals 0, suddenly your math is worthless.

I personally welcome another wizard optimizer to the community - in my view, there can never be enough because I like to steal ideas from all of you.  However, I think you post in a way that is unwelcoming of future wizard optimizers - which is not cool.  It is also closed to any contributions I may bring - which naturally I don't like even more.

Can you really say without a doubt that you can't make a control wizard without Wisdom?  I guarantee you aren't 100% certain - because none of us know the rules that well yet.  So why close your mind?  The point of a community like this is to share ideas - not constrict them.  What if the variable that is the number of control spells you cast that can use the Orb really was 0?  Why would that wizard need an 18 wisdom?  If every spell he casts is a good Control spell - then how do you get the right to suggest it isn't a control wizard?

Consider the possibility of a Control Wizard that is not dependant on Wisdom or the Orb for a moment.  Just consider the possibility.

The more I look at the wizard spell selection, and I mean the WHOLE wizard spell selection - the more I like Battlefield Control (No save allowed).  Yes - there are lots of decent debuff spells - but I don't like having to put an 18 in a stat to have a spell last against a single opponent, when I can just choose a spell that lasts and lasts with no save or attribute requirement.  Weird - I had the same impression in 3.5 - that's why I was always talking about Fogs and Walls.  To me THAT'S battlefield control - and wisdom is not required.

I've always considered spells that target the battlefield to be "battlefield control", while spells that target enemies to be "Debuffs".  That's just my take though.  Doesn't really matter I guess - I've always figured a good wizard does both, and buffs too.

So here's the question: Can you make a high level wizard with spells that are exclusively control spells that are all good, without being a slave to (save ends) status?  Because if you can - then Wisdom suddenly becomes optional for a Control Wizard.

So lets see:  I'll take a look at every category at every level available - and need to come up with a great control spell option that does not require a saving throw - nor does it require a high wisdom to be effective.

At Will:
Ray of Frost - easily the best at will - there are no battlefield control or buff options - and I'll take dual threat debuff/blast over straight blast anyday.

Heroic:
Icy Terrain: Encounter level 1.  Great choice, terrain modification that debuffs (knock prone) and blasts.
Flaming Sphere: Daily level 1.  Conjuration - so blocks the enemy, does damage to adjacent creatures with no to hit roll - and lasts the whole battle.  At level 1 - what else are you using your minor for?  Yes - I agree sleep is awesome - but in a long battle with lots of rounds (hello 4e) - this choice also has merit.
Shield: Utility level 1.  Immediate interrupt triggered by you BEING HIT, so it is never wasted.
Color Spray: Encounter lev 3.  Benifits from Arcane reach, blast 5 that dazes and does damage.
Bigby's Icy Grasp: Daily level 5.  Have a conjuration effect (enemy blocking) that grabs enemies and moves around for the whole battle - they have to defeat your Ref defence to break free.  You know - that defence based off Int???  Rocks!!!   It does damage too - no to hit roll if target has been grabbed previously.
Stinking Cloud: (OK same level as Bigby's Icy Grasp - but deserves an honorable mention)
Wall of Fog: Utility leve 6: This is a great battlefield control - yet somehow they consider it Utility.  That's fine by me - I get more BC's/day that way.  I loved fog in 3.5, and I love it in 4e.
Spectral Ram:  Encounter level 7: Gust of wind for 4e - except it does damage too.  Pushes, knocks over, does damage.  Nice combo.
Winter's Wrath: (honorable mention - blast radius 2 - that's alot of squares of concealment - does damage too)
Wall of Fire: Daily level 9: Did a comparison of this against Blade Barrier (Cleric Daily level 9) - guess what - Wall of Fire trumps on multiple grounds.  Awesome spell.
Blur: Utility level 10: +2 to all defences, and concealment from 5+ distance.  More versatile defence than the other options at this level

Paragon:
Prismatic Burst: Encounter level 13: Burst 2 that blinds and does damage. 
Biby's Grasping Hands: Level 15 daily: Who says metamagic doesn't exist in 4e.  We used to call this (Bigby's grasping hand - twin spell).  Single sustain maintains both hands too - and you can bash the grabbed creatures together - which mechanically isn't all that awesome - but still is super-cool.
Wall of Ice: (honorable mention - this wall is ginormous!)
Displacement: Utility level 16: Immediate interrupt to make an enemy who hits you or an ally within 5 squares make a reroll to hit - and it's an encounter spell - I don't know if it's better than stoneskin or fly - but who can pick?
Crushing Titan's Fist: Encounter level 17: more than twice as effective as difficult terrain and damage in a burst 2.  Actually - I think Force Volley and Ice Tomb are both mechanically superior and fit the requirements, but I just needed to type CRUSHING TITAN'S FIST!
Cloudkill: Daily level 19: Burst 5.  Yes - burst 5.  How many squares?  Um - how about 121 squares.  No to hit roll here - in the cloud?  Take damage - enter the cloud?  Take damage.  Your defence scores are irrelevant.  Keep it up forever with a minor sustain.

Epic:Mass Fly: Utility level 22: As usual - all wizard utilities are crazy-good.  Mass fly or Time stop?  God what a choice.
Acid Storm: Encounter level 23: Blocks line of sight, does damage, HUGE (burst 4), damage done requires no to hit roll.
Elemental Maw: Daily level 23: Burst 4 (again a huge size) and pulls everyone towards the center of the effect - and damages (you choose the type).  Terrain is also difficult - so you pull your enemy backwards, and make his terrain difficult to go forwards.
Confusion: Level 27 encounter: Int is required to hit - but wis determines how far he can travel to attack his buddies.  With wis 14 or 20 - this spell is great.
Legion's Hold: Level 30 daily: Blast 20 which means you are hitting lots and lots of enemies.  There is a save ends status (immobolize) - though affecting the save of one victim isn't all that big a deal when you are affecting over 1600 squares.  Wow - 1600+ squares - crazy.

So - in this list there are two spells that can benifit from either the Orb's save gimp (Legion's Hold) or Wisdom (Confusion) - but none come before level 27 - and both these spells are great even without a super-pumped wisdom.  You can also pump Ray of Frost with an Orb to get an extra round - but not wis dependant in any way.

Are you ready to consider the possibility that Control can be more than your one build?

Today I'm increasing your G-Fu Squirrelloid, because your build deserved it and I never did give you G-Fu for it, but I ask that you consider that your build isn't the only build...
« Last Edit: June 11, 2008, 02:37:36 AM by Treantmonklvl20 »
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brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #33 on: June 11, 2008, 02:42:36 AM »
I would say my biggest issue with squirrels' portrayal of his ideals is the fact that he uses different logic between comparing int and wis.

Quote from: Squirrelloid
The important thing about multi-targetting is that the difference in intelligence does not come up in every roll.  It only comes up 5% of the time, because there are two results we care about - hit and miss - and only on 5% of rolls does the difference in intelligence lead to a difference in result.

This is still the case with wisdom, how is it not the case? what result other than hit/miss do we care about. If they need a 19 or 20, and you make them need a 20, guess what. thats only 5% better. there chance of success is halved, but half of 10%=5%.

So by that logic both are equal, 5% is always 5%, 5% is never 50% EVER, even if it's half their chances to save, it's still 1 in 20 rolls of the die that they roll a 19. you say that 50% chance to hit is reasonable. lets say that gives you 75% on the one attack against the one guy that you want to hit because you are an elf. Now lets assume that in 10 rounds you can kill whatever it is that you have controlled. that means 1 in 4 encounters you aren't going to be using an orb on the target that is important. So we have 30 rounds a day of guys making saving throws (since you have 4 daily spells). so that 5% comes up 1.5 times a day. This assumes that you have a target that needs to be Orbed for 10 rounds to be killed 4 times per day. This tactic is vastly superior to using Int if you plan on fighting solo monsters all day.

I don't think you fight solo monsters very often, I would say maybe 1-20 encounters will involve a solo monster. the extra wisdom + elven accuracy is superior against solo monsters, because you can "make sure" you get that guy. I don't think it will be that common that solo monsters are confronted in the first encounter of a day, usually they are pretty smart, and have lairs and guards. This would cause me to believe that maybe, just maybe, you had used some of your daily powers.

We haven't even gotten to the solo monster discussion, which is what crushing a saving throw is best at. Lets say we have 18 wisdom +10 (why are we a demigod again, I dare say it's worse then archmage). gives us -11 to saving throws at level 28. So solo monsters are saving on a 16+. so it lasts for 5 rounds on average. thats a 25% chance that they roll the "15" for that 1 point of wisdom modifier to come up, in a best case scenario. You don't need to crush the saving throws of normal monsters, encounter powers/damage powers are enough. Just divide and conquer.

This leaves us to the best option, the elite monster. This is the primary target for the debuffing mage. you can make it need a 20 to save, which effectively takes it out of the battle for 20 rounds. Now every time you attack a minion, every time you use an encounter power to attack a group of guys, every encounter has ~5 targets on average. I'm pretty damn sure you can roll at least 10 attack rolls while using encounter/daily powers every encounter. that means you have to hit an average of 4 targets per power, assuming 4 encounters per day, and using one daily per encounter for your 5% from int to matter EVERY fight on a "meaningful" spell.

In combats with a large number of rounds (4e) the damage you deal DOES matter, your damage ISN'T worthless. in 10-20 round encounters guess what, you use some at-wills, and you do deal damage. Sure single target damage isn't what you are good at, but if you hit 3 targets you are dealing more than the other classes. You have multiple at-wills that deal damage to multiple targets. this is why I like human, as you can have both of them, and still have ray of frost.

I am willing to make the contention that AoE damage is what wizard at-will powers should be used for. The wizards job is to deal with lots of smaller guys. lots of minions? sure thats worth a daily to kill them all without a roll (stinking cloud). Nasty fucking solo monster? warlord, use lead the charge please. Wizards control the battlefield, they don't crush the bosses.

Aside from prismatic spray, and sleep what spells do you suggest that it's vitally important to keep one monster in forever? necrotic web?, what if it can teleport, or has ranged attack. then your only dealing damage, and damage sucks.

Sleep might be the best spell in the game for an orb wizard. coup de grace every round, but I hardly think the monster will have a chance to live 20 rounds while unconscious for that 5% to matter :-p.

Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #34 on: June 11, 2008, 03:06:46 AM »
I should probably specify I was talking about an orb-based control wizard.  I mean, my Wizard Handbook acknowledges other types of control which don't require or even necessarily want an orb as an implement at all.  (Master of Space primarily, who likely ends up going staff because they don't care about the wand or the orb notably much, and they'll take a free +1 AC, and tend to prefer races that give an int pump and a con or cha pump for defense).  So there are other types of control, I'll agree to that.  But the context of that entire exchange was orb vs. wand - I didn't think that really needed clarifying.  Maybe I was wrong.

If you're going to be an orb wizard, you really are losing out on power later if you sacrifice wisdom.  Being an orb wizard means choosing spells with (save ends) conditions.  While you can play with less wisdom, you've clearly (imo) moved away from an optimal mid-late game.  So 'necessary' may have been strong, but 'so highly desirable doing otherwise seems foolish' isn't too far from that.  But for the sake of argument, I'll begin referring to my 'control' build as the Master of Puppets like I do in my handbook, but I wasn't really talking about a particular build here.

There's a difference in arguing about what's suitable for a build and what's optimal for a role or ability.  If you're going to use an orb, dexterity is really not that optimal and maximizing wisdom really is in the long term.  The only good reason I can see for wanting dexterity is Arcane Reach, which works with the following spells an orb mage will (or might) consider:

Thunderwave AW
Colorspray E
(Thunderlance) E
Prismatic Beams D
Prismatic Spray D
Legion's Hold D

Except Thunderwave targets fortitude, which probably means you substitute it out after not too long, because you don't want both at-will powers targetting fortitude at high levels.  So we're really talking a few daily powers and maybe an encounter power (you probably dump colorspray sometime during epic).  No more frequent in use than the orb, ultimately.  And where you'll really appreciate Arcane Reach will be epic, except you'll grab Spell Accuracy instead and probably not bother with Arcane Reach.

To say its inappropriate to talk about what's optimal for a role/power/ability is kind of bizarre.  When we're talking about the best use of the orb or the best performance of an orb mage, we really are talking generally and not about specific builds, and to pretend otherwise is disingenious.  Consider the proposition that an Int 10 wizard is playable in 4E.  Now, virtually everyone is going to say 'you must start with 16 int from PB for a wizard', and while this is constraining, its also pretty much true.  This isn't to say I couldn't build an Int 10 wizard who managed to perform semi-reasonably, but its clearly defying all logic in doing so.  And the possible existence of one 10 int mage build doesn't invalidate the people who say '16 starting int is necessary' - the 10 int build is an aberration and highly unusual.  Heck, I can already imagine how a 10 int wizard build would work, but that doesn't mean its a good idea and it certainly won't be as good as a more typical build - its obviously suboptimal.  I feel the same way about non-16 wis (pre-race) orb builds, and think the math certainly supports that assertion.
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Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #35 on: June 11, 2008, 03:39:10 AM »
Brislove, you're mischaracterizing my argument.  I agree, 5% is 5% on any given roll.  Here's the thing, we're not interested in 'does it fail its saving throw in round X', because yes, its just a 5% difference on that roll.

The big difference here is that we get to make an attack every round.  If we're making 20+ attacks/combat, some of those are going to be at-will spells, and we can just cast another one of those ad infinitum.  We don't run out of attacks.  (So when we're talking about differences in to hit we're talking about the 1-4 encounter powers and up to 4 (but probably 1 per encounter, tops) daily powers that you can't just get back to use again ad infinitum, which is going to be ~10 attacks in a typical battle, more with minions, fewer with solos).

When that save ends effect ends, its over.  We can't even cast the same spell again, because no at-will powers have a save ends effect, meaning we get each one once/combat, and ideally want to drop just one in a combat.  However, what it does do is produce a roll to end the effect each round, so what we want to know is the expected duration of the effect.  And because this grows as (1-x)^n, the effect on expected duration is a lot greater than 5%, because that 5% difference in x each round has a cumulative effect on the expected duration rather than a linear or static effect. 

So the difference between +7 will (-9 saves) and +8 will (-10 saves) in the first round is 5%.  But the difference in the expectation that it not only stays down the first round but also the second round is larger, almost 10%, and the difference in it staying down 3 rounds is almost 13%.

P(effect lasts at least 1 round | -9): .9000
P(effect lasts at least 1 round | -10): .9500

P(effect lasts at least 2 rounds | -9): .8100
P(effect lasts at least 2 rounds | -10): .9025

P(effect lasts at least 3 rounds | -9): .7290
P(effect lasts at least 3 rounds | -10): .8574

P(effect lasts at least 4 rounds | -9): .6361
P(effect lasts at least 4 rounds | -10): .8145

P(effect lasts at least 5 rounds | -9): .5905
P(effect lasts at least 5 rounds | -10): .7738

That's a substantial difference in probability.  And there's no comparable calculation for an attack spell.

We can pretend its a solo monster instead, and those negatives become -4 and -5.

P(effect lasts at least 1 round | -4): .6500
P(effect lasts at least 1 round | -5): .7000

P(effect lasts at least 2 rounds | -4): .4225
P(effect lasts at least 2 rounds | -5): .4900

P(effect lasts at least 3 rounds | -4): .2746
P(effect lasts at least 3 rounds | -5): .3430

P(effect lasts at least 4 rounds | -4): .1785
P(effect lasts at least 4 rounds | -5): .2401

P(effect lasts at least 5 rounds | -4): .1160
P(effect lasts at least 5 rounds | -5): .1681

Which fluxtuates in the ballpark of 5-7% difference.  So here the difference in probability is possibly acceptable.  But this is the last even point.  Any higher negative and it increasingly favors the higher wisdom by significantly more than 5%

Ultimately this is because the variable of interest in save modifiers is not the size of the modifier itself, but the size of 10+(modifer), where the modifier is the absolute value (ie, a -9 is a 9).  The closer that gets to 20, the more severe the effect on the cumulative distribution.

This is the same issue as why the skill system fails (see here).  The possibility of multiple rolls changes the probability of ultimately success or failure.

And that's why I treat them differently, is because I'm looking at measures of success for each of them, and success is measured differently.  Success for an attack roll (and therefore the use of, say, a wand or similar) is measured in one roll.  Success of the orb power is measured by the distribution of P(status condition lasts k rounds).  Those are fundamentally different concepts.

And I explicitly considered the case of +1 int advantage vs. elven accuracy for full combat performance.  That analysis is on the first page of this thread.  Which handles them appropriately - as expected number of hits given some target relative target difficulty.  So you can't say I handled that differently.

To do a direct comparison of Orb +1 vs. a +1 to hit advantage has been done by limes superior, and his table demonstrates Orb +1 is better vs. at least normal monsters and elites (haven't tried cross-referencing the solo monsters yet).  I might post an analysis in his thread to point out the relevant numbers.
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brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #36 on: June 11, 2008, 04:20:28 AM »
Brislove, you're mischaracterizing my argument.  I agree, 5% is 5% on any given roll.  Here's the thing, we're not interested in 'does it fail its saving throw in round X', because yes, its just a 5% difference on that roll.
Snip

Your math shows that the difference is pretty close ~5-7% against solo monsters. Elites are the best target for an orb wizard, and probably the situation that best promotes the additional wisdom.

I will concede the point that wis is superior to int against elites. I think using the orb is overkill 90% of the time against normal monsters, so it's down to elites. Orb is good against elites, now what spells are you using that have saves? I can only find 2 that are actually so detrimental to the monster that they end the fight if they stick. Prismatic spray and Sleep. Sleep I doubt I would keep around at those levels, as a fair amount of creatures are actually immune to it.

This leaves us with our big saving throw debuff being on 1 spell per day where the effect is so overwhelming that the additional +1 is highly relevant. I'm pretty happy immobilizing creatures for 2-3 rounds, and since the first round is free that requires them to fail 1-2 saves. Wis IMO may become better as more "stunned/unconscious" save-ends effects come out.

Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #37 on: June 11, 2008, 04:44:36 AM »
Brislove, you're mischaracterizing my argument.  I agree, 5% is 5% on any given roll.  Here's the thing, we're not interested in 'does it fail its saving throw in round X', because yes, its just a 5% difference on that roll.
Snip

Your math shows that the difference is pretty close ~5-7% against solo monsters. Elites are the best target for an orb wizard, and probably the situation that best promotes the additional wisdom.

I will concede the point that wis is superior to int against elites. I think using the orb is overkill 90% of the time against normal monsters, so it's down to elites. Orb is good against elites, now what spells are you using that have saves? I can only find 2 that are actually so detrimental to the monster that they end the fight if they stick. Prismatic spray and Sleep. Sleep I doubt I would keep around at those levels, as a fair amount of creatures are actually immune to it.

This leaves us with our big saving throw debuff being on 1 spell per day where the effect is so overwhelming that the additional +1 is highly relevant. I'm pretty happy immobilizing creatures for 2-3 rounds, and since the first round is free that requires them to fail 1-2 saves. Wis IMO may become better as more "stunned/unconscious" save-ends effects come out.


Sleep
Prismatic Spray
Legion's Hold
Destructive Salutation (Blood Mage)

Necrotic Web or Evard's aren't bad choices either, because they're difficult to escape from (and certainly neutralize melee monsters, of which their continue to be a disturbingly high number in the MM even at epic levels).

Even Prismatic Beams isn't a terrible choice to continue to hold onto.

And if you go Archmage, one of those becomes an encounter spell at level 30.  You also have ways of getting back daily spells in epic, especially as Archmage, which lets you use the same daily repeatedly.

A DO can use a Staff of Power with Prophecy of Doom and a daily power to not expend the daily power because you get a guaranteed critical.

Finally, if you can convince the party warlock to go star pact/doomsayer, Prismatic Spray with orb and Doomsayer's Proclamation hoses even soloes.  (soloes have about a 20% chance to have saved once within 5 rounds under -10 (-> -5) to saves and Doomsayer's Proclamation - its beautiful).
« Last Edit: June 11, 2008, 04:49:39 AM by Squirrelloid »
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brislove

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #38 on: June 11, 2008, 05:18:27 AM »
Legion's hold seems like one of the effects where monster can still do things, like teleport. I would say that legion's hold, as insanely powerful as it is, is not one of the effects that the targets are required not to make. if they are immobilized for 2-3 rounds (1 or 2 failed saves) it has done it's job nicely.

Salutation is bloodmage specific, and that effect I agree adds potency to the Wisdom mage build. Divine oracle is also insanely good though :).

Archmage is pretty much required for the wisdom mage to get maximum use out of his orb. It seems like prismatic spray is your baby, stunned save ends is pretty solid (Salutation is about as good, but you have to be bloodmage, which means no divine oracle).   

Squirrelloid

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Re: Wisdom for Wizards
« Reply #39 on: June 11, 2008, 05:28:40 AM »
Legion's hold seems like one of the effects where monster can still do things, like teleport. I would say that legion's hold, as insanely powerful as it is, is not one of the effects that the targets are required not to make. if they are immobilized for 2-3 rounds (1 or 2 failed saves) it has done it's job nicely.

Salutation is bloodmage specific, and that effect I agree adds potency to the Wisdom mage build. Divine oracle is also insanely good though :).

Archmage is pretty much required for the wisdom mage to get maximum use out of his orb. It seems like prismatic spray is your baby, stunned save ends is pretty solid (Salutation is about as good, but you have to be bloodmage, which means no divine oracle).   

Yeah, and ultimately DO + staff of power is probably better than picking up Blood Mage.  Barring a Blood Mage tricks build, which can also be fun.

Legion's Hold is 'stunned' (and 'dazed' even if you miss).  I don't see why you don't have more love for it.

I think you also undervalue hosing normal monsters - reducing an encounter from 4 to 3 foes is *really* significant.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2008, 05:30:30 AM by Squirrelloid »
The ignorant shall fall to the squirrels. -Chip 4:2