Author Topic: Osama is dead  (Read 9788 times)

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veekie

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2011, 12:27:59 AM »
Well, they did get 4 out of 5.
The mind transcends the body.
It's also a little cold because of that.
Please get it a blanket.

I wish I could read your mind,
I can barely read mine.

"Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. At 2:15, it begins rolling up characters."

[spoiler]
"Just what do you think the moon up in the sky is? Everyone sees that big, round shiny thing and thinks there must be something round up there, right? That's just silly. The truth is much more awesome than that. You can almost never see the real Moon, and its appearance is death to humans. You can only see the Moon when it's reflected in things. And the things it reflects in, like water or glass, can all be broken, right? Since the moon you see in the sky is just being reflected in the heavens, if you tear open the heavens it's easy to break it~"
-Ibuki Suika, on overkill

To sumbolaion diakoneto moi, basilisk ouranionon.
Epigenentheto, apoleia keraune hos timeis pteirei.
Hekatonkatis kai khiliakis astrapsato.
Khiliarkhou Astrape!
[/spoiler]

There is no higher price than 'free'.

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Solo

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2011, 01:00:56 AM »
A bit less than that by my count.

"I am the Black Mage! I cast the spells that makes the peoples fall down!"

The Legend RPG, which I worked on and encourage you to read.

awaken DM golem

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2011, 04:59:22 PM »
No point in celebrating. He may be dead, but he still won.

This is so obvious even wikipedia knows it:

Quote
On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabi published extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Quaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[40][41] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages:

   1. Provoke the United States into invading a Muslim country.
   2. Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
   3. Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. in a long war of attrition.
   4. Convert Al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against countries allied with the U.S. until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the 7 July 2005 London bombings.
   5. The U.S. economy will finally collapse under the strain of too many engagements in too many places, similarly to the Soviet war in Afghanistan, Arab regimes supported by the U.S. will collapse, and a Wahhabi Caliphate will be installed across the region.

Does anybody want to argue that this isn't working beautifully so far?



There are two separate things going on.
This is known as a Retro-diction, the opposite of a Pre-diction.

The closest things to a Wahhabi Caliphate are the Saudis themselves,
and the Taliban. The Saudis had running street battles from 2003 to 2006.
They won. The Talibs were pitched out of power rather quickly in 2001.
They've been a very nasty and deadly nuisance since then.
Dari language Afghans (50%+ of the country) don't wanna be re-Talib-ed.
Tajik / Uzbek / Turkmen feel the same; but don't get the press in Europe or USA.

That said, the Iraq war was stupid.
Although, al-Jazeera showed the aftermath of too many AQ bombings of Sunnis.
Arab Sunnis didn't like that.

Whisper

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2011, 07:55:13 PM »
No point in celebrating. He may be dead, but he still won.

This is so obvious even wikipedia knows it:

Quote
On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabi published extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Quaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[40][41] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages:

   1. Provoke the United States into invading a Muslim country.
   2. Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
   3. Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. in a long war of attrition.
   4. Convert Al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against countries allied with the U.S. until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the 7 July 2005 London bombings.
   5. The U.S. economy will finally collapse under the strain of too many engagements in too many places, similarly to the Soviet war in Afghanistan, Arab regimes supported by the U.S. will collapse, and a Wahhabi Caliphate will be installed across the region.

Does anybody want to argue that this isn't working beautifully so far?



There are two separate things going on.
This is known as a Retro-diction, the opposite of a Pre-diction.

Indeed. A post-hoc hypothesis is neither conclusive nor scientifically valid. But until someone figures out a way to do double-blind controlled studies on the entire community of nations, we're just going to be stuck with rhetoric and guesswork.

The wahhabi pipe dream of a caliphate that spans southwest asia is just that... a dream. They're delusional. But of course, they're a religion, so that goes without saying.

However, the plan to harm the US is working, not perfectly, but very well indeed.

I can't talk about details of my job, obviously, but I can say that I have a front-row seat to watch just how stupidly and inefficiently we are fighting these wars, and just how much oxygen our massive war budget sucks out of the air.

I freely admit that my salary is part of the problem (and I've recently started talking to recruiters again, because I'm sick of being paid to build stupid things instead of smart ones), but there's a lot of other people like me, collecting fat paychecks to do dumb things like build laser point-defense systems (bad idea), or plan wars using microsoft powerpoint (seriously, you have nooooooooooo idea how much of hard on officers have for powerpoint).

It isn't that Al-Quida is especially smart... as far as I can tell, they're not. But they read the manual on asymmetric warfare, which everyone in the DoD either hasn't or (more likely) won't admit to, since it would be a "career-limiting move".

You don't hurt a vastly better equipped and supplied foe by going up and hurting them. You do it by tricking and provoking them into hurting themselves. And this is what is happening to us.

Solo

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2011, 08:18:52 PM »
Quote
It isn't that Al-Quida is especially smart... as far as I can tell, they're not. But they read the manual on asymmetric warfare, which everyone in the DoD either hasn't or (more likely) won't admit to, since it would be a "career-limiting move".
My impression is that many (David Petraeus is the most immediate example that comes to mind) does understand how insurgency works.

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The Legend RPG, which I worked on and encourage you to read.

veekie

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #45 on: May 08, 2011, 01:50:54 AM »
The problem of knowing how insurgency works doesn't really make it that much easier to counter it though. Its main strength is its formlessness. It cannot do real damage to an organized military force without a mistake on the part of the larger force, but the morale effects of being nickel and dimed by an unseen, relentless attack is pretty nasty.
Worse, the measures good against one in the short term only helps the insurgency long term, as they rile more neutrals towards extremes.
The mind transcends the body.
It's also a little cold because of that.
Please get it a blanket.

I wish I could read your mind,
I can barely read mine.

"Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. At 2:15, it begins rolling up characters."

[spoiler]
"Just what do you think the moon up in the sky is? Everyone sees that big, round shiny thing and thinks there must be something round up there, right? That's just silly. The truth is much more awesome than that. You can almost never see the real Moon, and its appearance is death to humans. You can only see the Moon when it's reflected in things. And the things it reflects in, like water or glass, can all be broken, right? Since the moon you see in the sky is just being reflected in the heavens, if you tear open the heavens it's easy to break it~"
-Ibuki Suika, on overkill

To sumbolaion diakoneto moi, basilisk ouranionon.
Epigenentheto, apoleia keraune hos timeis pteirei.
Hekatonkatis kai khiliakis astrapsato.
Khiliarkhou Astrape!
[/spoiler]

There is no higher price than 'free'.

"I won't die. I've been ordered not to die."

Solo

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #46 on: May 08, 2011, 02:33:00 AM »
The main weakness of an insurgency is that it depends on the populace to sustain and hide it. As Mao wrote in Aspects of China's Anti-Japanese Struggle (1948), "The people are like water and the army is like fish." If you can make the Taliban less popular with the civilian population, the movement is weakened.

"I am the Black Mage! I cast the spells that makes the peoples fall down!"

The Legend RPG, which I worked on and encourage you to read.

Whisper

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #47 on: May 08, 2011, 03:24:16 AM »
The main weakness of an insurgency is that it depends on the populace to sustain and hide it. As Mao wrote in Aspects of China's Anti-Japanese Struggle (1948), "The people are like water and the army is like fish." If you can make the Taliban less popular with the civilian population, the movement is weakened.

Ah, so you have read your Chairman Mao.

That's a good start. Unfortunately, you've taken the wrong lesson from it in precisely the same way as the Pentagon did. The revolutionary swims in the people as the fish swims in water. Chop the water with your hand. How many fish do you catch?

The answer isn't that you must turn the water against the fish. The fish is the natural inhabitant of the water. You will not "win the hearts and minds of the Vietnamese people".

The answer is to drain the lake.


Solo

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #48 on: May 08, 2011, 03:38:38 AM »
That metaphorical action seems to either indicate genocide or causing the popular support for the revolutionary to wither. I am going to assume that you meant the latter.

In addition, as long as we're using this metaphor, it is possible to catch fish with your bare hands. I understand that this is the method favored by bears and the late Steve Irwin. I'm not actually sure exactly what this means in the context of the metaphor, however. Maybe drone strikes?
« Last Edit: May 08, 2011, 03:46:57 AM by Solo »

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veekie

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #49 on: May 08, 2011, 04:58:58 AM »
The main weakness of an insurgency is that it depends on the populace to sustain and hide it. As Mao wrote in Aspects of China's Anti-Japanese Struggle (1948), "The people are like water and the army is like fish." If you can make the Taliban less popular with the civilian population, the movement is weakened.

Ah, so you have read your Chairman Mao.

That's a good start. Unfortunately, you've taken the wrong lesson from it in precisely the same way as the Pentagon did. The revolutionary swims in the people as the fish swims in water. Chop the water with your hand. How many fish do you catch?

The answer isn't that you must turn the water against the fish. The fish is the natural inhabitant of the water. You will not "win the hearts and minds of the Vietnamese people".

The answer is to drain the lake.


Broken analogy though, 'winning hearts and minds' =/= 'chopping the water'. More like dropping fertilizer into it. 'Chopping the water' would be taking military action.
The mind transcends the body.
It's also a little cold because of that.
Please get it a blanket.

I wish I could read your mind,
I can barely read mine.

"Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. At 2:15, it begins rolling up characters."

[spoiler]
"Just what do you think the moon up in the sky is? Everyone sees that big, round shiny thing and thinks there must be something round up there, right? That's just silly. The truth is much more awesome than that. You can almost never see the real Moon, and its appearance is death to humans. You can only see the Moon when it's reflected in things. And the things it reflects in, like water or glass, can all be broken, right? Since the moon you see in the sky is just being reflected in the heavens, if you tear open the heavens it's easy to break it~"
-Ibuki Suika, on overkill

To sumbolaion diakoneto moi, basilisk ouranionon.
Epigenentheto, apoleia keraune hos timeis pteirei.
Hekatonkatis kai khiliakis astrapsato.
Khiliarkhou Astrape!
[/spoiler]

There is no higher price than 'free'.

"I won't die. I've been ordered not to die."

wotmaniac

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #50 on: May 08, 2011, 11:10:48 AM »
ever see redneck fishing?  throw a stick of dynamite in the lake, and all the fish float up dead.
nets seem to work too.

so, in metaphorical terms, I'd guess that would mean either throw bombs everywhere and you eventually kill all the terrorists, or pick up everybody and throw back in the ones you don't want.

I'd think that human rights groups don't like to go fishing.

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #51 on: May 08, 2011, 05:01:55 PM »
Y'know ... the Mao comparison is kinda tricky.



I think the most recent info on the Cultural Revolution,
is the massive famine in China's south, while not caused
by Mao, was absolutely known about. Nothing was done
to alleviate it. About 40 million people died in 4 years.
One dude at the top, in charge of it.


UBL's street cred had gone as high as 30% in muslim country polls,
but now is around 10%. Clearly he was (!) still in charge.
I don't know if that means 100 million still believe some/most of his b.s.

They numbers are in the same magnitude ballpark.
The one was just sloppier in his execution.
 

BeholderSlayer

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #52 on: May 11, 2011, 02:12:22 AM »
How much would we really be losing if we just turned it all into a glass parking lot, anyway? Not much.

I kid, I kid.
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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #53 on: May 11, 2011, 02:18:35 AM »
We'd lose a few nukes.

"I am the Black Mage! I cast the spells that makes the peoples fall down!"

The Legend RPG, which I worked on and encourage you to read.

veekie

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #54 on: May 11, 2011, 04:03:33 AM »
Those are expensive.
The mind transcends the body.
It's also a little cold because of that.
Please get it a blanket.

I wish I could read your mind,
I can barely read mine.

"Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. At 2:15, it begins rolling up characters."

[spoiler]
"Just what do you think the moon up in the sky is? Everyone sees that big, round shiny thing and thinks there must be something round up there, right? That's just silly. The truth is much more awesome than that. You can almost never see the real Moon, and its appearance is death to humans. You can only see the Moon when it's reflected in things. And the things it reflects in, like water or glass, can all be broken, right? Since the moon you see in the sky is just being reflected in the heavens, if you tear open the heavens it's easy to break it~"
-Ibuki Suika, on overkill

To sumbolaion diakoneto moi, basilisk ouranionon.
Epigenentheto, apoleia keraune hos timeis pteirei.
Hekatonkatis kai khiliakis astrapsato.
Khiliarkhou Astrape!
[/spoiler]

There is no higher price than 'free'.

"I won't die. I've been ordered not to die."

trappedslider

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #55 on: May 11, 2011, 07:30:08 AM »
We'd lose a few nukes.

Those are expensive.

but whats the maintence cost on them and how often is it done,along with the cost of training?
All the above statements are true in some sense, false in some sense, meaningless in some sense, true and false in some sense, true and meaningless in some sense, false and meaningless in somesense, and true and false and meaningless in some sense.


BeholderSlayer

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #56 on: May 11, 2011, 12:10:45 PM »
We'd lose a few nukes.
Those are expensive.
Yeah, but aren't we supposed to get rid of some of those anyway due to the new treaty with Russia (which they will never actually follow, anyway)? I say we put them to good use.
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Hallack

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #57 on: May 11, 2011, 01:36:37 PM »
We'd lose a few nukes.
Those are expensive.
Yeah, but aren't we supposed to get rid of some of those anyway due to the new treaty with Russia (which they will never actually follow, anyway)? I say we put them to good use.

And you think the US will follow such a treaty while Russia wont?   :p
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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #58 on: May 11, 2011, 01:41:12 PM »
We'd lose a few nukes.
Those are expensive.
Yeah, but aren't we supposed to get rid of some of those anyway due to the new treaty with Russia (which they will never actually follow, anyway)? I say we put them to good use.

And you think the US will follow such a treaty while Russia wont?   :p
Like the Russians would lie to us. :rollseyes
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Whisper

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Re: Osama is dead
« Reply #59 on: May 12, 2011, 10:08:52 PM »
That metaphorical action seems to either indicate genocide or causing the popular support for the revolutionary to wither. I am going to assume that you meant the latter.

I meant the former.

Did I not just say that it is foolish to try to turn the water against the fish? The fish is the natural inhabitant of the water.

You do not wither the support of people for their uncles, fathers, brothers, cousins, and sons.

What you do is genocide. Genocide *works*. No lake, no fish.

But Whisper, isn't genocide immoral?

Duh. So's invading somebody else's country for made up bullshit reasons. Go hard, or don't go at all, but don't hang out in the middle spewing weaksauce excuses.

But genocide doesn't work! Look what happened to the Nazis!

That's because they failed.

People take entirely the wrong lesson from WWII. They don't remember Europe before the war. All sides were opposing varieties of fascist. It wasn't like the British weren't out there wiping out entirely populations in the colonies.

The Nazis were only different from the British and their allies in three respects.

1. They lost.
2. They did it in their own backyard, which makes it hard to hide the evidence.
3. They didn't have the common sense to lie about it.

Seriously, all that crap with the death'shead belt buckles and whatnot. Amateur hour. Real professional ethnic cleansers, like the aforementioned British, know that you have to do it while pretending to be the good guys, the nice guys, even to the extent of looking wimpy.

Seriously, the civilization that invented the concentration camp, the all-time reigning world champions of the sport of mass-grave filling, has everyone convinced that they all act like Hugh Grant, and wouldn't bust a grape in a fruit fight. It's genius. I don't know whether to spit on them or ask for their autograph.

Now, America has the "pretend to be the good guys" part pretty well understood. We could be better at it, mind. We were dumb enough to prosecute our war criminals. Catch the British doing that. If Lt. Calley had been a Brit, they'd have told the press his squad wiped out several hundred of the Yellow Menace, and given him a medal.

But America doesn't understand the "kill the bastards" part. Oh, we get all full of ourselves when we invade, playing football fight songs and dropping cluster munitions. But we don't have the sustained ruthlessness required to run an empire. We keep losing our nerve, and curling into the fetal position, sobbing "Why don't you love me???" at the people whose families we just killed.

The way you wipe out a population is the way the British do it. Divide and conquer. Take the oppressed minority in the country you just invaded. They're your new best friend, your new police force. Arm them to the teeth, then turn them the fuck loose for payback time.

Then when they start filling those mass graves for you, wring your hands and cry, but don't do anything about it. Eventually your bitter enemies, the people who would be the "resistance", will beg you to step in and save them. Then, when, you're good and ready, switch to supporting the other side. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Eventually, you'll have wiped out millions, while leaving those remain convinced that you are the only thing stopping the slaughter from being total.

Or you can do it like the Isrealis, and cut down, without cutting off, the natives' access to everything they need to live (food, water, working sanitation, education, medical care, etc.). Then justify continuing to do so by pointing out the squalor your victims live in, and arguing quite convincingly that they are savages. Above all, keep mentioning every one of you they actually manage to kill, while never, never admitting to the death toll you're racking up.

This, however, is an inferior method, because you need colonists, and eventually you start to acquire a whiff of Nazi about you anyway, because you're too directly involved. Israel is starting to have that problem, and would have much sooner without the Holocaust card to play. (Our 9/11 card ran out long ago.)

If we were smart, we would be stirring the entire Middle East into a vast Sunni/Shia bloodbath, while sitting back on our hands making weepy noises about how we just wanted everyone to get along.